JAKARTA – Dr. Verdy Firmantoro, a political communication analyst and expert from Universitas Brawijaya, believes Anies Baswedan has a wide-open chance to win the Jakarta Election due to his strong communication skills recognized by Jakarta residents. This was proven when he was able to clearly articulate his achievements while leading the former capital of Indonesia.

"An incumbent who runs in an election has a 98 percent chance of winning, according to empirical data. Incumbents rarely lose when they contest in the next electoral period," said Verdy during a conversation on Tuesday evening, May 14, 2024.

According to Verdy, from studies conducted, an incumbent governor will fail or not win the next election if they make two major mistakes, which heavily depend on their political communication skills while leading.

"An incumbent will fail in the next election for two reasons. First, if they commit political blunders and also fail to communicate their policies effectively. Second, if they create a counter-narrative against what most of the public believes, causing most of their voters to develop antipathy towards them," Verdy Firmantoro emphasized.

Considering the facts on paper and referring to the results of the 2024 Presidential Election, Anies indeed has a solid and sizable voter base. His chances are even greater if the three parties supporting him propose his candidacy in the Jakarta Election.

"Especially now that PKS, a party supporting Anies in the Presidential Election, has become a major force in Jakarta. This was previously unimaginable for the party to win in the former capital of Indonesia."

"Remember, although Jakarta is no longer the capital city, it remains the barometer of Indonesia in terms of economics, social issues, and politics. So, it's not the new capital that is the political barometer of Indonesia. It's well-known that being the governor of Jakarta is a quarter of the journey to the presidential seat. Jakarta cannot be underestimated," said Verdy.

Regarding Anies's competitors in the Jakarta gubernatorial race, Verdy mentioned that his current main competitor is Ridwan Kamil. Why? Because the former Governor of West Java now has two advantages that could serve as 'weapons' in competing in the Jakarta Election.

"Ridwan Kamil has two advantages. First, he is close to Prabowo in terms of winning the 2024 Presidential Election in West Java. Second, Ridwan Kamil is a cadre of the Golkar Party," he continued.

However, Verdy highlighted that the use of SARA (ethnic, religious, racial, and societal issues) sentiment is now very difficult to exploit in Jakarta elections. This is because Jakarta's residents are inclusive thinkers.

"There will no longer be stories like the previous gubernatorial elections that were sensational. The risk is that relying on ethnicity, religion, and race will not work. The 2024 Presidential Election has already proven this," Verdi Firmantoro asserted.