Anies Will Be Supported by Four Parties?

IF you want to win, support Anies. That's roughly the current picture of the Jakarta gubernatorial election's electability. "Anies's electability is very dominant in all surveys," said Surya Paloh. "Anies is ranked 1, people are tired of facing Anies in Jakarta," continued the NasDem chairman.

The realistic choice for all parties, especially PKS, Nasdem, PKB, and also PDIP, is to support Anies. In principle, these parties want to support the winner. The most fundamental indicator of victory is the survey results.

Based on the survey results, Anies's support is around 40 percent. Followed by Ahok at about 17 percent. Ridwan Kamil is in third place with 15 percent. Other names get below 5 percent. Including Sandiaga Uno, Heru Budi Hartono, Sohibul Iman, and Sa'roni. Their electability is below five percent.

Why did PKS advance Sohibul Iman as the gubernatorial candidate for Jakarta, while his electability is still very low?

So far, Sohibul Iman's name has not appeared. This time, PKS is trying to test the waters. When Sohibul Iman's name is brought up, PKS will observe the market. How the public responds to Sohibul Iman: whether they accept or reject him. If his electability rises significantly after the declaration, Sohibul Iman can continue to be pushed. But, if the market response is low, PKS will be realistic. PKS will lower Sohibul Iman's bargaining position to be the deputy governor candidate. This is a common practice for every political party.

PKS is the winning party in the Jakarta legislative election. PKS won 18 seats. It is reasonable for PKS to propose its cadre as a gubernatorial candidate. Only needing an additional four seats, PKS can advance its cadre.

Other parties will monitor Sohibul Iman's electability after the declaration. If the market response is good and Sohibul Iman's electability rises significantly, many parties will come closer, establish communication, and even join in. Together with PKS, they will support Sohibul Iman as the gubernatorial candidate. The parties that join will compete for the deputy governor position. Conversely, if the market response is quiet and Sohibul Iman's electability remains low, no party will be interested.

Unless the palace decides to take the deputy governor position to accompany Sohibul Iman. If the palace thinks the important thing is to remove Anies from PKS, then support the gubernatorial candidate from PKS, this will create its own dynamics. Especially if the offered deputy governor is Kaesang. If this really happens, will PKS accept the palace's offer? Not necessarily. Once again, PKS will calculate, including the aspirations of its constituents as part of the important variables and considerations.

As the registration for the gubernatorial election on August 27 approaches, there is about two months for Sohibul Iman and PKS to test the market. To brand and market Sohibul Iman. From these survey results, PKS will decide whether to continue pushing Sohibul Iman as a gubernatorial candidate, or only take the deputy governor position.

PKS has already received an offer to be Ridwan Kamil's deputy governor with the support of Golkar, Gerindra, PAN, and Democrat, plus two palaces. From this perspective, PKS is safe. Safe ticket and safe logistics. Plus other offers, of course.

But, PKS always sees the response and listens to the aspirations of its constituents. If okay, go ahead. If not okay, hold back. It seems PKS's constituents are more inclined to recommend PKS support and endorse Anies Baswedan. Anies's track record of five years in Jakarta is considered successful and positive in the eyes of PKS's constituents. Besides, of course, Anies's chances of winning are very high.

It is very realistic if PKS then proposes the deputy governor, in this case, Sohibul Iman to accompany Anies. With the note that Sohibul Iman's electability does not rise significantly.

The parties that will nominate Anies must see that PKS is the winning party and has received an offer from the palace coalition to become the deputy governor. By accepting PKS as Anies's deputy governor, the chances of the Anies-Sohibul Iman pair winning are very high compared to pairing Anies with others. Why? Because Anies has overlapping voters with PKS. Besides, PKS is the winning party and has a political machine that can work very well.

Dr. Tony Rosyid, Political Observer and Columnist